Republicans Pull Ahead in Early Voting in North Carolina, Data Show

Republicans have pulled ahead of Democrats in the key swing state of North Carolina as of the morning of Oct. 24, the data show.
Republicans had been behind Democrats in both in-person early or mail-in ballots in the Tar Heel State. That slight lead held by Democrats appears to have been eroded as GOP voters have now taken a roughly 3,000 early-vote advantage.
About 686,497 Republicans have returned early ballots in the state, compared with Democrats’ 683,072, data provided by the University of Florida’s Election Lab show. Unaffiliated or minor-party voters have returned about 638,090 ballots so far.
More broadly, more Republicans appear to be voting early in this election than in the 2020 election.
Of the more than 28 million votes cast nationwide, 16 million of them are mail-in ballots and nearly 12 million are in-person early votes, data provided by the Election Lab show.
Around half of early votes, or approximately 14 million, were cast in states that report party affiliation. As of Oct. 24, 41.9 percent of early votes have been from Democrats, 35.3 percent were cast by Republicans, and 22.9 percent were cast by voters who are independent or belong to a minor party.
Compared with the 2020 election, Republican voters in 2024 appear to be eating into Democrats’ early-voting lead.
Voters set a statewide record of more than 350,000 ballots cast on the first day, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections. By Oct. 24, more than 2 million ballots had been returned.
Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the state board of elections, has repeatedly praised the efforts of local election workers, some of whom have lost their own homes. She described the damage as unprecedented and the challenges election officials faced in its wake as daunting. Over the first week of early voting, the process has proved to be remarkably smooth, with few complaints expressed publicly.
“Mountain people are strong, and the election people who serve them are resilient and tough, too,” she said last week.
Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump visited areas in North Carolina that were ravaged by Helene, saying that some Americans in the region “felt helpless and abandoned and left behind by their government.”
“In North Carolina’s hour of desperation, the American people answered the call much more so than your federal government,” he said.
“This is not 2016 or 2020. The stakes are even higher,” she said.